As we move into the last stretch of the year and approach the holiday season, the Greater Toronto Area housing market continues to show signs of transition. The data from November offers a clearer picture of buyer behaviour, pricing direction, and what we may expect heading into 2026.
Let’s break down the key numbers and what they mean for buyers and sellers.
Approximately 60,000 total sales are expected by the end of 2025—down from 70,275 sales in 2024. November recorded 5,010 sales, marking a 15.8% decrease year-over-year.
A major factor driving this decline is buyer hesitation. Many prospective buyers are waiting for more definitive signs of economic stability before making a move. Interest rate uncertainty, inflation pressures, and mixed economic forecasts continue to influence activity.
While sales declined, available inventory increased.
Active listings: 24,549
Year-over-year change: +17%
With more homes on the market and fewer buyers actively purchasing, the balance has shifted. This elevated supply has placed noticeable downward pressure on prices.
The average sale price in November was approximately $1,039,000, representing a 6.4% decline from November 2024.
This pricing shift aligns with current market dynamics:
Increased inventory
Reduced urgency among buyers
More competitive conditions for sellers
However, despite slowing price growth, values remain relatively stable compared to the significant volatility seen during previous market cycles.
The condo sector also experienced reduced sales activity:
Sales down 20% year-over-year
Average prices down just 3.8%
While demand softened, values did not fall at the same pace. The condo market may experience renewed strength later in 2026 as new construction completions taper off, reducing available inventory.
Despite softer year-over-year numbers, several indicators in November pointed in a positive direction:
Lower-than-expected unemployment
Stronger trade performance
Ongoing government infrastructure investment
These factors may help restore buyer confidence in early 2026, especially if borrowing conditions improve or stabilize.
As the market moves into 2026, a few key themes may shape activity:
Lower completions later in 2026 may reduce supply.
Buyer confidence may increase if economic conditions continue improving.
Pricing may stabilize further, particularly in the condo sector.
Overall, while the market has softened compared to last year, the outlook is not negative—just transitional. Many buyers and sellers are waiting for clarity, and once it arrives, we may see activity pick back up.
Every neighbourhood performs differently. Averages tell part of the story, but your exact strategy—whether you’re buying, selling, or investing—depends on local micro-market trends.
If you want a personalized breakdown of how these numbers affect your specific area or real estate plans, I’d be happy to help.
Thinking about making a move in 2025 or early 2026?
Get in touch for a customized market assessment or buyer strategy session.