Toronto Housing Market Forecast: CMHC Predicts Strong Sales Growth Through 2028

Toronto Housing Market Forecast 2026 is looking more optimistic, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

If you’ve been waiting for the Toronto housing market to shift, Canada’s national housing agency believes it already has.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has released its Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook, forecasting a steady recovery for the Greater Toronto Area over the next three years. While economic uncertainty continues to weigh on the market today, CMHC expects improving affordability, lower borrowing costs, and returning buyer confidence to drive a meaningful increase in home sales through 2028.

For buyers, that could mean today’s negotiating power won’t last forever.

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Toronto Home Sales Expected to Climb

According to CMHC, Toronto MLS® home sales are projected to increase from approximately 63,500 sales in 2026 to 71,500 in 2027, eventually reaching 77,000 homes sold by 2028.

That represents an increase of more than 21% over the next two years.

Although activity is expected to remain below long-term historical averages, CMHC believes the market is beginning a gradual recovery rather than experiencing another downturn.

Several factors are expected to contribute to this rebound, including:

• Improved mortgage affordability
• Lower borrowing costs than previous years
• Rising household incomes
• Pent-up buyer demand
• Greater confidence as economic uncertainty eases

These conditions could encourage many buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines to finally enter the market.

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Why Buyers Currently Have More Leverage

One of the biggest takeaways from CMHC’s report is that today’s market still heavily favours buyers.

Inventory across the GTA remains elevated, giving purchasers more options and greater negotiating power than they’ve had in several years. Sellers are competing harder for attention, particularly within the condominium market where supply continues to outpace demand.

For qualified buyers, this creates opportunities to:

• Negotiate purchase prices
• Include financing and inspection conditions
• Take more time comparing properties
• Shop with less pressure than during the pandemic market

If CMHC’s forecast proves accurate, these advantages could gradually shrink as sales activity increases over the next few years.

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What About Home Prices?

Despite stronger sales, CMHC isn’t forecasting a rapid jump in prices.

Instead, average Toronto home prices are expected to remain relatively stable before beginning modest growth.

The report projects average resale prices around:

• 2026: approximately $1.02 million
• 2027: approximately $1.05 million
• 2028: approximately $1.10 million

Rather than another bidding-war frenzy, CMHC expects a healthier, more balanced recovery with gradual price appreciation.

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Toronto Is Positioned Better Than Vancouver

While many Canadian housing markets are expected to recover slowly, Toronto stands out in CMHC’s latest outlook.

The report notes that Ontario—particularly the GTA—is expected to lead much of the country’s resale market recovery over the coming years. Vancouver, meanwhile, continues to face affordability challenges and slower market momentum, resulting in a more subdued outlook.

Although every local market behaves differently, Toronto’s diversified economy and large pool of potential buyers position it well for long-term growth.

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What This Means for Sellers

For homeowners considering selling, the forecast is encouraging.

While today’s market requires realistic pricing and strong marketing, improving buyer demand should create more opportunities over the next several years.

The sellers most likely to succeed in today’s environment are those who:

• Price according to current market conditions
• Present their home professionally
• Invest in high-quality marketing
• Work with an experienced REALTOR® who understands local market trends

Waiting for “the perfect market” isn’t always the best strategy. Every homeowner’s financial goals, timeline, and circumstances are different.

The Toronto Housing Market Forecast 2026 points to improving affordability, stronger buyer confidence, and increased home sales as interest rates stabilize.

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The Bottom Line

CMHC’s latest outlook suggests Toronto’s housing market is moving toward recovery—not overnight, but steadily.

Sales are expected to increase significantly through 2028 while prices gradually stabilize and begin rising again. That means buyers currently enjoy opportunities that may become harder to find as competition returns.

Whether you’re buying your first home, moving up, downsizing, or thinking about selling, understanding where the market is heading can help you make more informed real estate decisions.

If you’d like to discuss what these market trends mean for your specific situation, we’re always happy to help.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to buy a home in Toronto?

According to CMHC, buyers currently benefit from elevated inventory, improving affordability, and more negotiating power than they’ve had in recent years. However, every buyer’s financial situation is unique.

Will Toronto home prices rise?

CMHC forecasts modest price growth beginning in 2027 after softer conditions in 2026. The agency expects a gradual recovery rather than a rapid surge in prices.

How many homes does CMHC expect to sell in Toronto?

CMHC forecasts approximately 63,500 home sales in 2026, 71,500 in 2027, and 77,000 in 2028.

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